Saib ntawm qhov sib txawv ntawm kev lag luam thawv ntawv hauv xyoo 2023 los ntawm qhov xwm txheej kev txhim kho ntawm cov tuam txhab loj hauv European corrugated ntim khoom
Xyoo no, cov tuam txhab loj ntim khoom hauv Tebchaws Europe tau khaws cov nyiaj tau los siab nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej phem zuj zus, tab sis lawv txoj kev yeej yuav kav ntev npaum li cas? Feem ntau, xyoo 2022 yuav yog ib xyoos nyuaj rau cov tuam txhab loj ntim khoom. Nrog rau kev nce nqi zog thiab cov nqi zog ua haujlwm, cov tuam txhab European sab saum toj, suav nrog Smurf Cappa Group thiab Desma Group, kuj ua haujlwm hnyav los daws qhov teeb meem ntawm cov nqi ntawv.Lub thawv ntawv
Raws li Jeffries cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas, txij li xyoo 2020, ua ib feem tseem ceeb ntawm kev tsim cov ntawv ntim khoom, tus nqi ntawm cov ntawv rov ua dua tshiab hauv Tebchaws Europe tau yuav luag ob npaug. Tsis tas li ntawd, tus nqi ntawm cov thawv ntawv hauv zos ua ncaj qha los ntawm cov ntoo es tsis yog cov thawv rov ua dua tshiab ua raws li txoj kev loj hlob zoo sib xws. Tib lub sijhawm, cov neeg siv khoom uas paub txog tus nqi tab tom txo lawv cov kev siv nyiaj hauv online, uas ua rau txo qhov kev thov rau cov ntawv thawv. Lub hnab ntawv
Cov xyoo zoo kawg uas COVID-19 tau coj los, xws li cov xaj khiav ntawm lub peev xwm tag nrho, cov thawv ntim khoom tsis txaus, thiab cov nqi khoom lag luam nce siab ntawm cov tuam txhab ntim khoom loj, tau xaus tag nrho. Txawm li cas los xij, txawm li ntawd los, kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov tuam txhab no zoo dua puas tau. Smurfit Cappa nyuam qhuav tshaj tawm tias nws EBITDA nce 43% txij thaum kawg Lub Ib Hlis mus txog rau Lub Cuaj Hli, thaum nws cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev ua haujlwm kuj nce ib feem peb. Qhov no txhais tau tias txawm hais tias tseem muaj ib feem plaub ntawm lub sijhawm ua ntej xaus xyoo 2022, nws cov nyiaj tau los thiab cov nyiaj tau los hauv xyoo 2022 tau dhau qib ua ntej muaj kev sib kis COVID-19.
Lub caij no, Desma, lub tuam txhab ntim khoom loj tshaj plaws hauv UK, tau tsa nws qhov kev kwv yees txhua xyoo txij li lub Plaub Hlis 30, 2023, hais tias qhov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev ua haujlwm kho kom zoo hauv ib nrab xyoo thawj zaug yuav tsum yog tsawg kawg 400 lab phaus, piv rau 351 lab phaus hauv xyoo 2019. Mengdi, lwm lub tuam txhab ntim khoom loj, tau nce nws cov nyiaj tau los yooj yim los ntawm 3 feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus thiab ntau dua ob npaug ntawm nws cov nyiaj tau los hauv ib nrab xyoo thawj zaug ntawm lub xyoo no, txawm hais tias nws tseem muaj kev lag luam Lavxias nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej nyuaj dua vim muaj teeb meem tsis tau daws.Lub thawv kaus mom
Desma cov ntaub ntawv hloov tshiab txog kev lag luam thaum Lub Kaum Hli muaj tsawg heev, tab sis nws hais tias "kev hloov pauv ntawm cov thawv ntawv corrugated zoo sib xws yog me ntsis qis". Ib yam li ntawd, kev loj hlob ntawm Smurf Cappa tsis yog qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev muag ntau lub thawv - nws cov muag khoom corrugated tseem nyob ruaj khov hauv cuaj lub hlis thawj zaug ntawm xyoo 2022, thiab txawm tias poob 3% hauv peb lub hlis twg. Ntawm qhov tsis sib xws, cov neeg loj no nce lawv cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev nce tus nqi ntawm lawv cov khoom.Lub thawv kaus mom baseball
Ntxiv mus, kev hloov pauv zoo li tsis tau zoo dua. Thaum lub rooj sib tham txog kev tshaj tawm nyiaj txiag lub hlis no, Tony Smurf, CEO ntawm Smurf Cappa, tau hais tias: "Qhov ntim kev lag luam hauv peb lub hlis thib plaub zoo ib yam li qhov peb pom hauv peb lub hlis thib peb. Feem ntau peb xav tias yuav rov zoo thaum Christmas. Tau kawg, kuv xav tias qee lub khw xws li tebchaws Askiv thiab lub tebchaws Yelemees tau ua tau zoo mediocrely hauv ob lossis peb lub hlis dhau los." Lub thawv phuam qhwv caj dab
Qhov no ua rau muaj ib lo lus nug: Yuav muaj dab tsi tshwm sim rau kev lag luam thawv ntawv corrugated hauv xyoo 2023? Yog tias kev ua lag luam thiab kev thov ntawm cov neeg siv khoom rau cov ntawv ntim khoom corrugated pib ruaj khov, cov chaw tsim khoom ntim khoom corrugated puas tuaj yeem txuas ntxiv nce tus nqi kom tau txais txiaj ntsig ntau dua? Vim yog keeb kwm yav dhau los nyuaj thiab cov khoom xa tuaj tsis muaj zog hauv Tebchaws Meskas, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas zoo siab nrog qhov hloov tshiab ntawm Smurf Cappa. Tib lub sijhawm, Smurfikapa hais tias "kev sib piv ntawm pawg thiab xyoo tas los muaj zog heev, thiab peb ib txwm ntseeg tias qhov no yog qib tsis ruaj khov". Lub thawv khoom plig Christmas
Txawm li cas los xij, cov tub ua lag luam tsis ntseeg siab heev. Tus nqi ntawm Smurf Cappa cov feem yog qis dua 25% piv rau lub sijhawm siab tshaj plaws ntawm kev sib kis, thiab tus nqi ntawm Desma cov feem poob 31%. Leej twg yog tus yog? Kev vam meej tsis yog nyob ntawm kev muag khoom ntawm lub thawv thiab cov ntawv cardboard xwb. Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm Jeffries tau kwv yees tias vim muaj kev thov loj heev, tus nqi ntawm cov ntawv cardboard rov ua dua tshiab yuav poob, tab sis lawv kuj tau hais tias tus nqi ntawm cov ntawv pov tseg thiab lub zog kuj poob qis, vim nws kuj txhais tau tias tus nqi ntawm kev tsim khoom ntim khoom poob qis.
"Hauv peb qhov kev xav, qhov uas feem ntau tsis quav ntsej yog tias cov nqi qis dua yuav muaj kev cuam tshuam loj heev rau cov nyiaj tau los. Thaum kawg, rau cov chaw tsim khoom thawv corrugated, cov txiaj ntsig ntawm kev txo nqi yuav tshwm sim ua ntej txhua tus nqi qis dua ntawm lub thawv, uas yog viscous ntau dua hauv cov txheej txheem ntawm kev poob qis (lag 3-6 lub hlis). Feem ntau, cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev txo nqi qis dua yog ib feem ntawm cov nqi ntawm cov nyiaj tau los. "Jeffries cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas hais. Lub thawv khaub ncaws
Tib lub sijhawm, qhov teeb meem kev thov nws tus kheej tsis yog qhov yooj yim kiag li. Txawm hais tias e-lag luam thiab kev qeeb qeeb tau ua rau muaj kev hem thawj rau kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov tuam txhab ntim khoom corrugated, feem ntau ntawm kev muag khoom ntawm cov pab pawg no feem ntau yog nyob rau hauv lwm cov lag luam. Hauv Desma, kwv yees li 80% ntawm cov nyiaj tau los los ntawm cov khoom siv ceev ceev (FMCG), uas feem ntau yog cov khoom muag hauv cov khw muag khoom loj. Kwv yees li 70% ntawm cov thawv ntim khoom ntawm Smurf Cappa yog muab rau cov neeg siv khoom FMCG. Nrog rau kev txhim kho ntawm lub khw muag khoom kawg, qhov no yuav tsum ua pov thawj tias muaj kev ywj pheej. Desma tau pom qhov kev loj hlob zoo hauv kev hloov pauv yas thiab lwm yam teb.
Yog li ntawd, txawm hais tias muaj kev hloov pauv ntawm qhov kev thov, nws yuav tsis poob qis dua qee qhov chaw - tshwj xeeb tshaj yog xav txog kev rov qab los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom lag luam uas tau raug kev sib kis COVID-19 hnyav. Qhov no tau txhawb nqa los ntawm kev ua tau zoo tsis ntev los no ntawm MacFarlane (MACF), uas tau taw qhia tias kev rov zoo ntawm cov neeg siv khoom hauv kev lag luam dav hlau, engineering thiab tsev so them rau qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev qeeb hauv kev yuav khoom hauv online, thiab lub tuam txhab cov nyiaj tau los nce 14% hauv rau lub hlis thawj zaug ntawm xyoo 2022. lub thawv xa khoom noj tsiaj
Cov neeg ntim khoom corrugated kuj siv qhov kev sib kis los txhim kho lawv cov ntawv qhia nyiaj txiag. Tony Smoffey, CEO ntawm Smoffey Kappa, tau hais tias nws lub tuam txhab cov peev txheej yog "nyob rau hauv lub xeev zoo tshaj plaws hauv peb keeb kwm", thiab cov nuj nqis / ua ntej amortization profit multiplication yog tsawg dua 1.4 npaug. Miles Roberts, CEO ntawm Desma, pom zoo nrog qhov no thaum lub Cuaj Hli, hais tias cov nuj nqis / ua ntej amortization profit ratio ntawm pawg tau poob qis mus rau 1.6 npaug, "uas yog ib qho ntawm cov piv qis tshaj plaws hauv ntau xyoo".lub thawv xa khoom
Tag nrho cov no ua ke txhais tau tias qee cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas ntseeg tias lub khw tau ua dhau lawm, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm FTSE 100 index packers, uas nws tus nqi poob ntau npaum li 20% ntawm qhov feem ntau xav tau ua ntej amortization profit. Lawv qhov kev ntsuas tus nqi yeej yog qhov txaus nyiam. Lub P / E piv ntawm Desma tsuas yog 8.7, thaum tsib xyoos nruab nrab yog 11.1, thaum Smurfikapa P / E piv ntawm 10.4, thiab tsib xyoos nruab nrab yog 12.3. Feem ntau, nws nyob ntawm seb lub tuam txhab puas tuaj yeem yaum cov tub ua lag luam tias lawv tuaj yeem txuas ntxiv muaj kev ua tau zoo hauv xyoo 2023.lub thawv xa ntawv
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Kaum Ob Hlis-27-2022